MUMBAI: If Euro RSCGâ€™s proprietary tool Predictameter is anything to go by, the Hindi film industry will have no super hits this year.
Of all the big movies releasing in the second half of 2007, only Ashutosh Gowarikarâ€™s Jodhaa Akbar starring Hrithik Roshan and Aishwarya Bachchan, Sajid Nadiadwallaâ€™s Heyy Babyy starring Akshay Kumar, Riteish Deshmukh, Fardeen Khan and Vidya Balan and Ram Gopal Varmaâ€™s Darling starring Fardeen Khan and Esha Deol will be declared hits.
According to the Predictameter, 2007 wonâ€™t be as hot as 2006 was – this will be a year of flops and average grossers, a few hits and no super hits.
Majority of the 30 odd movies yet to release this will be flops or average grosser. Some of the other movies covered in the study are Dhamaal, Speed, Aggar, Love Story 2050, Buddha Mar Gaya, Victoria No 203 etc.
In the year 2006 fate of movies like Umrao Jaan, Omkara, Golmaaal, Lage Raho Munnabhai, KANK, Salaam-e-Ishq and Nishabd were predicted. Predictameter had successfully estimated that mega budget films – Salaam-e-Ishq and Omkara – would not do well at the Box Office. As was forecast, Omkara recorded Box Office seat occupancy of merely 25 per cent in the first week of its launch and Umrao Jaan recorded occupancy of just 30-40 per cent and Baabul of 40 per cent. < Page Break >
With the rapid pace at which Bollywood movies are being made and released, every movie just gets one week to perform at the Box Office. And its just first week Box Office seat occupancy that makes a movie a hit or a flop.
To predict the fate of the movies to be released in 2007 a study was conducted in five markets; Mumbai,
A large percentage of respondents indicated that Chak De! India would at best be an average grosser and Sanjay Leela Bhansaliâ€™s much touted Saawariya, which will see the debut of Ranbir Kapoor and Sonam Kapoor, would just about break even at the turnstiles. Other films deemed to be about average grossers include – the big budget Om Shanti Om directed by Farah Khan and starring Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone and Ram Gopal Varma Ki Aag among others.
Surprisingly one of the much awaited releases of the year, which also marks the comeback of Madhuri Dixit – Aaja Nachle – has been deemed a flop apart from Kaafila (already released), Laaga Chunari Mein Daag and Goldie Bhelâ€™s Drona starring Abhishek Bachchan.
Launched in 2006, Euro RSCG Predictameter, a forecasting tool that provides useful consumer insights into any given category predicted the fate of 18 movies, at a strike rate of 83 per cent in 2006.
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